Stop trying to be a visionary: you can't create demand
Even Steve Jobs didn't create it for the iPhone
A popular myth is that entrepreneurs can create demand: many people say that Steve Jobs created demand for the iPhone. I disagree: you can’t create demand directly.
But Jeroehoeen, people do demand the iPhone.
Well, do they?
The masses demanded communication at a distance. The growing adoption of laptops and smartphones shows that.
Before that, we had telephones.
Before that, we had electrical telegraphs.
Before that, we had postcards.
Before that, we had smoke signals (kinda).
The iPhone, at launch, was an Mp3 player with phone functionality and a web browser. Much of the web wasn’t optimised for mobile yet, like it is today.
The App Store launched a full year after the first iPhone was released. Spotify was non-existent, iTunes was pay-per-song. The camera just had 2 Megapixels (Nokia N95 had 5MP).
All things considered, the first iPhones were relatively limited compared to the mini PCs we carry today.
Despite those ‘setbacks’, they sold over 6 million units in the first year.
So, yes, the introduction of the iPhone resulted in demand, but it didn’t create it. Why? It was always there.
Demand is like gravity working on a mug on a table
An interesting analogy I borrow from Ramoglou & Tsang (2016). They equate markets and demand to a mug on a table that doesn’t fall despite the gravity.
The force of gravity surely pulls the mug towards the centre of the Earth. However, the table blocks it. The moment the table is removed, or the mug slides off the table, the gravity starts moving the mug. The force is enacted.
Similarly, in markets, the market pull/need is the force. There are customer desires which can be met. However, sometimes, there’s not the right product for that, so no demand as a result. But the need remains.
When the right product gets introduced, i.e. the table is removed, all of a sudden, those forces turn into visible demand: people buying iPhones.
Why should you care?
That is why demand can only be fully demonstrated the moment actual sales are happening.
Everything before that is a proxy. All prototypes, problem interviews and other experiments that don’t involve transactions are insufficient to validate demand.
🔥 Jeroen’s Hot Take 🔥
There will be many people disagreeing with me on this post. I’ve held this argument many times, and there are always people who go against it. Here are the common complaints:
